Weekly Economic Update for November 16, 2015

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Mike Fassi presents,

 

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
 

WEEKLY QUOTE

 

“It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety.”

– Isaac Asimov

WEEKLY TIP

 

Are your investment allocations still in agreement with your investing goals? An annual review can help you find that out, and determine whether rebalancing is necessary.

WEEKLY RIDDLE

 

5 letters have I, I start in E and end in Y. Take away my first, third and last letter and the 2 letters left will sound the same as when you started with me. I am a 5-letter word; what word am I?

Last week’s riddle:

When you shop for clothes, XL is always larger than L…but clothing sizes aside, in what numerical context is L larger than XL?

Last week’s answer:

In Roman numerals. The Roman numeral L = 50. However, X placed before L means “ten less” than L, so the Roman numeral XL = 40.

 

 

 

 

November 16, 2015

RETAIL PURCHASES UP JUST 0.1% IN OCTOBER

The tiny increase was actually an improvement, as retail sales were flat in both August and September. Gas station sales tailed off 0.9% in October, car sales 0.5%; offsetting those declines, online retail purchases were up 1.4% last month, spending at restaurants and bars up 0.5%. The Commerce Department’s latest report notwithstanding, the National Retail Federation projects holiday season retail sales to rise 3.7% this year to $630.5 billion.1

HOUSEHOLDS THINK POSITIVE

Economists polled by Bloomberg expected the preliminary November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to rise 2.0 points to 92.0. It surpassed that forecast, reaching 93.1 thanks in large part to consumer expectations of low inflation and larger wage gains in 2016. Twelve months ago, the index was at 88.8.2

 

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX DECREASES AGAIN

The Labor Department’s barometer of wholesale inflation declined 0.4% in October. September saw the index fall 0.5%. Through October, the PPI was down 1.6% year-over-year, even though wholesale gasoline prices rose 3.8% last month. Core producer prices have risen but 0.1% in 12 months.1,3

STOCKS RETREAT ON SOFT DATA, LOW OIL PRICES

Negative wholesale inflation, tepid retail sales and light sweet crude ending the week at $40.74 on the NYMEX, its lowest close since August 26 – that was enough to snap Wall Street’s winning streak. The S&P 500 lost 3.63% on the week to fall to 2,023.04 Friday. The Dow (-3.71%) and Nasdaq (-4.26%) made similar descents, wrapping up the week at respective closes of 17,245.24 and 4,927.88.4,5

 

THIS WEEK: Monday offers quarterly results from Agilent Technologies and Dillard’s. Tuesday, October’s CPI and a report on October industrial output complement earnings from Dick’s Sporting Goods, Home Depot, Jack-in-the-Box, La-Z-Boy, TJX and Walmart. Minutes from the October Federal Reserve policy meeting appear on Wednesday, along with October’s housing starts report and earnings from Aramark, Keurig Green Mountain, L Brands, Lowe’s, NetApp, Staples, Target, The Children’s Place and Weibo. Thursday brings the Conference Board’s latest leading indicator index, a new initial claims report and earnings from America’s Car-Mart, Best Buy, Fresh Market, Gap, Intuit, J.M. Smucker, Kirkland’s, Ross, Stein Mart and Williams-Sonoma. Abercrombie & Fitch and Foot Locker report Q3 results on Friday.

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA -3.24 -2.31 +10.82 +6.12
NASDAQ +4.05 +5.29 +19.14 +12.40
S&P 500 -1.74 -0.80 +13.74 +6.40
REAL YIELD 11/13 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.76% 0.47% 0.71% 2.14%

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/13/156,7,8,9

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

 

Mike Fassi may be reached at mike@fassifinancialnetwork.com, or 970.416.0088

 

 

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 – nbcnews.com/business/economy/online-purchases-eating-out-help-october-retail-sales-edge-higher-n462846 [11/13/15]

2 – 247wallst.com/economy/2015/11/13/consumer-sentiment-climbs-again/ [11/13/15]

3 – usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/11/13/us-producer-prices-drop-in-latest-sign-of-tame-inflation [11/13/15]

4 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [11/13/15]

5 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-settles-lower-down-8-on-week-2015-11-13 [11/13/15]

6 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/13/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F13%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F13%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F13%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F12%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F12%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F12%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F14%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F14%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F14%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/13/15]

9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/13/15]

 

 

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Weekly Economic Update for November 16, 2015
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Weekly Economic Update for November 16, 2015
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